When there has been a frostiness between the two nations, Russia has the option of simply turning off the gas supply to Hungary. While publicly neither country would label this dependence as a problem, recent developments make it clear that Hungary wants to reduce the power Russia can exert over the country through its energy supplies.

Gas disputes

Even if the relationship between Hungary and Russia is healthy, Hungary is still in a position where its gas supply could be effected were Russia to, once again, get into a dispute over gas supplies with the Ukraine. Recently, disputes in 2006, 2007 and 2008 between the Ukraine and Russia saw Russia reducing the pressure in the pipelines from Russia to Ukraine.  Even though Russia cut its supplies only to the Ukraine, several European countries were also affected.

In 2006, Russia cut its supply to the Ukraine on 1 January.  After the two sides came to agreement, the supply was restored on 4 January 2006.

In October 2007, another dispute saw Russia's gas giant Gazprom threaten to reduce supplies to Ukraine starting on 3 March 2008.  The dispute centred around Ukraine refusing to pay for the natural gas which it consumed in 2007.  The supply was turned back on only two days later on 5 March.

In 2009, another dispute arose after Gazprom requested that the Ukraine pay the $2.4 billion dollars it owed before it would enter into a new supply contract. Although the Ukraine made a partial payment of $1.5 billion before the deadline it was given, on 1 January 2009 Russia completely cut the gas supply to the Ukraine.

Within 24 hours, the rest of Europe began to feel the crunch as pressure dropped in pipelines leading to Hungary, Poland and Romania.   Bulgarian supplies were also affected, which had a domino effect as supplies to Greece, Macedonia and Turkey were also hit. The crisis ended up affecting many European countries, including Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia and Turkey.

About 80% of all Russian gas destined for Europe is pumped through Ukrainian pipelines, so unless the continent manages to diversify where it sources its gas supplies, any further disputes between Russia and the Ukraine could once again affect many European countries.

Russia has also shown that it is not afraid of exercising its rights to achieve what it wants.  Some have called cutting off gas supplies to millions of people a form of extortion, but the fact remains that Gazprom, and Russia, have the ability to cut gas supplies if they so choose.  Depending on the time of the year, a move like this could be anything from mildly unpleasant in summer, to deadly in winter.

Hungary currently gets close to 80% of its gas supply from Russia, which means that Hungary cannot survive for long if this energy pipeline is closed down.  So it is no surprise that Hungary is looking for alternate routes to bring gas into the country and one of the countries it is looking to as a partner is Azerbaijan.

Speaking in Baku, Hungarian ambassador to Azerbaijan Mr Zsolt Chutora said that Hungary is keen to diversifying energy imports and would be happy to work with Azerbaijan if the opportunity arose. Chutora said, "we import very little energy resources from Azerbaijan. But we are ready to increase imports."

Gas pipelines

There are several pipelines planned over the next few years that would allow countries to import a significant portion of their needs from supplier other than Gazprom.  The pipelines currently in the planning stages include Nabucco, the Azerbaijan–Georgia–Romania Interconnector (AGRI), White Stream, Blue Stream and South Stream pipelines.

Hungary is confident that both the Nabucco and Azerbaijan–Georgia–Romania Interconnector will come online so Hungary will have direct access to gas that does not come through either Russia or the Ukraine.

The Nabucco pipeline will be 4042 km in length and will run from Ahiboz in Turkey via Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary to Baumgarten an der March in Austria.  Baumgarten is a major hub for Austrian supplies and will allow the gas that arrives there to be funneled anywhere in Europe.

Hungary's largest gas and oil company, MOL, has a 16.7% share in the Nabucco plan, but there are also other shareholders involved including Austrian OMV, Bulgarian Bulgargaz, German RWE, Romanian Transgaz and the Turkish Botas group.

The Nabucco pipeline will likely carry gas to Europe from Iraq, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan, home to the Shah Deniz gas field which has 1.2 trillion cubic metres of gas in reserves.  If funding can be organized to the planned deadline, then construction would begin in 2012 with the Nabucco becoming fully operational by 2015.

The second project is the Azerbaijan–Georgia–Romania Interconnector (AGRI) that will run through the three countries named.  The AGRI will consist of pipelines to Georgia, from where the gas will be transported in tankers to Romania.  Like the Nabucco pipeline, the AGRI is still in the planning phase and although the two routes could be considered competitors, those representing both the AGRI and Nabucco have publicly stated that they see all gas routes into Europe as „complementary.”

Besides the stability that is gained by having access to two extra sources of non-Russian gas,  the Nabucco and AGRI projects will also lessen the influence that Russia can exert on Hungarian policy and politics, because the potential backlack from taking action that could insult Russian pride would have lesser consequences.  This will allow the Hungarian leadership to make decisions without worrying about the reaction from their counterparts in Moscow.

The statue

Budapest is a beautiful city dotted with fascinating sights, beautiful architecture and numerous monuments that memorialize something (or someone) associated either with Hungary or Budapest.  While some things are prettier than others, all are accessible to the public.  All, that is, except one.

Standing on the northern end of Szabadság Square in Budapest is a memorial in the shape of an obelisk, capped with a golden star. Surrounding the monument are barricades that seem to serve no purpose.  The square is in the V District of Budapest, which is considered both a business and political centre, so the square is not usually blessed with huge crowds. Yet, come rain or shine, the barricades remain in place. 

The American Embassy stands on one side of the square, surrounded by bollards, fences, and an armed guard who seem to enjoy displaying semi-automatic weapons.  Everything about the structure, and the additions that have been put in place since the onset of „the war on terror” scream „don’t come it.”  Facing the Embassy on the other side of the square is one of the buildings of Magyar Televizio (Hungarian Television).  If any neighbourhood could be classed as completely safe, it would be this one.  Yet, a cursory glance around the statue reveals that the statue is not only protected by barricades, but also by Police, who patrol the memorial in pairs day or night, come rain or shine. 

This is still not the strangest part, however.

What sets this statue apart from any statue anywhere in western Europe is that both the Police and the barricade are there to protect the statue FROM the citizens of the country it is within.  The guards are on duty because otherwise it is likely, if not certain, that the monument would be defaced by vandals on a regular basis.

So what makes this memorial such a contentious one?

The statue is dedicated to the Soviet soldiers who died when Budapest was liberated from the Nazis at the end of World War II. While this is a reason to celebrate, the liberation that is alluded to never really arose.  Rather than being saved by the Soviet soldiers, the liberation that took place was little more than a transfer of power, as from that moment on, until the fall of the wall in 1989, Hungary was governed as a Soviet satellite state.  Hungarian, by and large, do not look upon the Soviet army as an army of liberation, but rather an army of occupation. 

Yes, the Soviets removed the Nazis from power.  But rather than handing the leadership of the country back to non-Nazi Hungarians, the Soviet Union entered the country and then, in effect, never left.  Liberation morphed into occupation practically overnight. As a result, the memorial is despised by almost all Hungarians and hated by a few.  Yet it still stands, protected FROM Hungarians by a barrier and an armed patrol.

To all visiting tourists, this is ridiculous and absurd.

I bumped into an Italian and Spanish group of tourists at the square yesterday.  Universally, their reaction to the statue was that it should be pulled down, or at the least moved.

Mr Matteo d’Alquati asked, "if Hungarians don’t like it, why does the Hungarian government insist on keeping it?”

There is no other country in Europe where such a ridiculous monument is allowed to exist.  When one country has occupied another for 40 years, expecting those ruled to think of those who had exerted their will upon them as anything less than an invading force is unrealistic.  It is a shame that although it is clear that it is the will of the Hungarian people – whom the politicians claim to represent – that the monument be removed from the city limits, the government still keeps it there, under armed guard.

Were the monument to be moved, there would be no precedent set. The Memento Park on the outskirts of the city has become home to numerous statues dedicated to both soviet and communist heroes that were removed after the fall of communism and after the last Soviet soldier left Hungarian soil.

The Hungarian government has said previously that the hammer-and-sickle-adorned monument is protected by a treaty with Russia, but this logic is suspect. The Hungarian government exists to represent the Hungarian people, almost all of whom would be happier if the statue was moved.  The last time I checked, having a Russian passport did not allow you to vote in Hungarian elections, yet for too long, the Hungarian government has been powerless to do anything about the statue because of Hungarian reliance on Russian influence in general, and Russian energy in particular. 

While it sounds ridiculous that the present Russian government would be unhappy to see the monument moved, it is far more ridiculous that the Hungarian regime cannot make its citizens happy for fear of upsetting Russia.  Instead, the monument remains barricaded, guarded and protected.

Former Russian ambassador to Hungary Mr Igor Savolsky once said, “if this statue is removed, it would greatly worsen the atmosphere of binary relations.”

So the statue stays. And the barricades stay in place. And the armed guard still patrols the desolate square with the Soviet memorial, which doesn't just stand for those soldiers who gave their lives to remove the Nazis.

The statue is a memorial to 40 years of Soviet influence and communist oppression, and it has no place in a democratic Hungary when Hungarian citizens want it gone. Russia will not be happy if the monument is removed, but that is no reason to keep it there.

Maybe the new Nabucco and AGRI projects will allow the Hungarian government to be less fearful of Russian retaliation when the statue is eventually moved out of Budapest, or torn down, because if a monument needs to be protected against the people it wants to impress, then it cannot, and should not, last.

If you have any comments, leave them below or send me an email - mark.bollobas@dunatv.hu